Will the 2020 China garlic prices run at lower prices?

The new season of garlic has start to harvest. Currently one of a company in Jinxiang country conducted a week-long inspection of garlic production areas in Jinxiang, Laiwu, Zhongmu, Qixian, Pizhou, Jiangsu, and other regions for the yield and quality.

There are some conclusion release for this activities and made a forecast analysis of the 2020 China garlic market “In terms of planting, affected by the high price of garlic last year, farmers’ enthusiasm for planting this season is quite good. Overall, the planting area of garlic in 2020 has increased by about 18.2% over the previous year. Concerning the quality, this year’s garlic is significantly larger than the average of previous year’s Level."

"Because the good weather conditions and the careful cultivation and management by garlic farmers during this season, we hope to maintain the quality of garlic and continue the high prices of the previous season. 95% of the garlic bases in the country have increased production. According to the data learned, only the Cangshan production area has reduced production by about 20%. However, because the planting area of garlic in Cangshan only accounts for 5% of the total planting area of the country, it has little effect on the total China garlic output. Overall, the output per mu of garlic this year will increase by around 10% compared with last year, and the market supply will be the same as in 2018, or slightly increase. "Recalling the 2018 production season, because the processing volume of garlic dehydrated products is much higher than in previous years, a large amount of chilled garlic was consumed, and the area of new garlic plantings has been reduced by more than 20%, China’s garlic demand mainly comes from domestic consumption, overseas markets, and garlic dehydrated products. First, although the Indonesian market has received a large amount of stocks due to the opening of quotas in the past month, garlic stocks in 2019 is still huge. Secondly, although the garlic price is not high this year, it is not easy to predict whether the processing volume of dehydrated products has increased. Third, affected by the public crisis, the domestic market demand for garlic this year is heavy lower than previous years. In addition, the overseas economic situation is declining, and the obstruction of logistics will have a certain impact on exports. Fourth, the garlic merchants ’speculation will cause the garlic market to fluctuate. Finally, there are some large and powerful storage companies entering the garlic industry this year which will be another key factor of the market trend.

Tony Wang

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